The pandemic clears the way for CPP victory in 2022 and 2023 elections!

Cambodia is currently grappling with the COVID-19 community transmission. On 20 February 2021, the country found 32 positive cases, its third community transmission, bringing the total number of positive cases since the beginning of the outbreak to 516 cases, 470 recoveries, and zero death.

As of 05 April 2021, the Southeast Asian country has recorded 3,028 infections, 24 deaths . As the number of cases spikes every day, the CPP led government has adopted a more stringent measure to restrict people movement. On 1 April, a curfew for a fortnight has been put in place for people in Phnom Penh and the neighboring Kandal province between 8 pm and 5 am with a few exceptions for emergency and movement of essential workers. Sihanoukville was also put into partial lockdown.

This latest temporary action was added to a more long-term legal measures such as the State of Emergency Law and the COVID 19 Preventive Law, the laws considered as repressive imposing disproportionate penalties threatening the rights of human rights to perform their duties and citizens in general.

The health crisis is now unfolding as there is no sign of return to the pre-2015 democratic situation when Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha were leading the CNRP party to challenge the CPP. In 2015, threatened by legal action by CPP, the leader of the opposition Sam Rainsy went into exile, leaving the presidency of the party to his partner Kem Sokha.

Cambodia’s democracy was regressing further since the dissolution of the opposition party CNRP by the Supreme Court late 2017 in the aftermath of the local elections in that year when the opposition made huge gains, becoming a real challenger to the ruling party CPP. In early September 2017, Kem Sokha was arrested at night at his residence in Phnom Penh, allegedly without a warrant.

As a result, the national elections in 2018 was held without the main opposition party when Sam Rainsy was advocating from his residence in Paris that ‘staying at home’ is best for democracy in Cambodia. Hun Sen grabbed all the seats, now increased to 125, at the National Assembly.

While a few political events have taken place since, nothing has ever brought the political balance back to pre-2015. Sam Rainsy’s bit to return on 9 November 2019, just before the pandemic, failed to materialise as the opposition leader accused Prime Minister Hun Sen of preventing him from entering the country. The European Union, Cambodia’s biggest trading partner, withdrew 20% of its terrif free trade with the kingdom effective in August 2020.

Now Sam Rainsy remains in exile. Kem Sokha has freedom of movement since 7 November 2019, but he is barred from talking politics. The two cannot talk to one another.

Given this reality, what is the future of democracy in Cambodia as the pandemic is raging on?

As the pandemic is dragging on, it is hard to imagine a condition that might be in favor of the revitalisation of the opposition party. Despite the fact that no one wants to see the enormous socio-economic toll caused by the health crisis on the Cambodian people, the pandemic is in the service of the ruling CPP.

Closure of factories, and the trickle-down effects on the informal economies depending on it leads to work suspension and unemployment in great number. In response, the government provides a monthly payment to factory workers whose work are suspended. $22 million has been disbursed to approximately 330,000 workers during the nine month period up to November 2020, each receiving between $38 and $76 depending on their employment history. The government extended this cash payment at least until the end of March 2021. No update has been released thereafter. And the poorest who are registered in the national poverty registration system--$136.2 million distributed to 659,845 poor and vulnerable families or about 2.7 million people. Crisis like this makes such policy a great political asset for the ruling party.

In contrast, the pandemic has imposed unfavourable condition for the opposition. The party’s movement has been limited to online tit-for-tat tradings of comments with the ruling party as physical mobilisation has been severely restricted. Former opposition Sam Rainsy and more than a dozen other senior leader of the CNRP are living in exile.

Sam Rainsy might at time got frustration by the lack of development in his favor, calling for the toppling of the Hun Sen government. No positive outcome achieved. Rather, there is a clear sign of greater division within the CNRP movement—between the Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha’s circles.  

Kem Sokha, former CNRP president is barred from engaging in political activities though he can travel within the country. His continued audience with Western diplomats at his residence in Phnom Penh does not seem to yield any political concession from the ruling party. However, he has successfully disciplined himself from engaging in ‘political acts’ as per the court order.

Given the current political development, if the pandemic dragged on beyond 2021, both the local elections in 2022 and the national elections in 2023 will go ahead without the opposition party. Of course, the scenario that Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha can be together again leading the opposition party is highly unlikely as this is the last thing the CPP wants to see happen for their two opposition figures working together can pose a credible threat to Hun Sen’s hold on to power.

 

Sreang Chheat, PhD Student at the School of Political Science and International Studies, the University of Queensland.